In the last blog, I referred to a recent ADA review which showed a 10% decline in the number of visits by adult Americans in the last decade (2000 – 2010).
This profound decline in demand got me wondering about the supply of American dental professionals.
A good forecaster of the supply of professionals such as dentists, dental assistants and hygienists is the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last year, the BLS updated its outlook for these dental professionals in the period 2010 – 2020. The projections for more dental professionals are very bullish – at an increase of 32%, the growth of this profession outpaces most other professions (Figure 1).
Figure 1 Projected numbers of dental professionals, US, 2010 to 2020
A rapid growth in supply of any service in the context of a substantial decline in its demand, means one or more of several outcomes:
- A decline in the real price per service; this is problematic in an industry such as dentistry which has high fixed costs and is very labour intensive
- A shifting of service providers; for example, provision of more services by lower cost professionals such that access is opened and demand is stimulated
- A different mix of services; in particular, the supply side will need to become far more driven by what the (aging) patient wants.
Frankly, I have some misgivings about the projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sure, dental schools need to keep on graduating students and the lifestyles and incomes of the dental professional have been attractive. But if long-term trends in declining dental attendance continue, incomes in the dental professionals will drop and there will be fewer job openings. In other words, supply and pricing structures will adjust to a reduced demand.
The crossroad for the American dental professionals certainly seems to be around the corner.
Ross Perry
All sourced from Preova for more information at: http://blog.prevora.com/2013/04/at-the-crossroad-continued/.
